by Jeffrey Simpson

http://www.theglobeandmail.com

With about 10 weeks until the global summit on climate change in Copenhagen, what is the latest science telling us? In brief, climate-warming predictions of three or four years ago are already out of date. New science suggests an even faster warming than had been thought possible.

In preparation for Copenhagen, the United Nations recently issued a summary report (Climate Change Science Compendium) based on 400 peer-reviewed scientific studies. It found, inter alia, that whereas carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel burning had grown by 1.1 per cent from 1990 to 1999, the increase was 3.5 per cent from 2002 to 2007.

The growth exceeded the most alarming of the scenarios previously outlined by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The most recent report said: “No region is de-carbonizing its energy supply.” The obvious result will be a hastening and intensification of the adverse effects of climate change on the planet.

Few places will be more affected than our Arctic. As the University of Toronto’s brilliant physicist Richard Pelletier told a meeting in Ottawa this week, “Canada and Russia are the two countries on Earth in the northern regions that will experience the biggest changes.”

If nothing is done to reverse current emission trends, the climate will warm on average by about 3.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, but by twice that amount in the Arctic. It’s part of what is called the Northern Hemisphere polar amplification effect. Warming in the Arctic means the retreat of sea ice and the exposure of more water to the sun’s rays. This pattern feeds upon itself, since both the water and the atmosphere get warmer.

In 2007, according to the latest UN report, “the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean shrank to its smallest extent on record, 24 per cent less than the previous record set in 2005” and 34 per cent less than the average minimum from 1970 to 2000.

“This is clear evidence on a phenomenon of importance on a planetary scale,” it says.

It is also part of a well-understood impact of global warming: that it worsens already extreme weather conditions such as drought and storms.

The insurance industry knows this pattern, which is why rates in areas vulnerable to weather-related disasters have been rising.

Weather anomalies abounded in 2008 and 2009, bringing with them tremendous costs. A few examples: Mexico had its worst drought in 70 years; central and southern Chile its worst drought in 50 years; parts of Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay the worst drought in 50 years.

The U.S. Southwest experienced its third-worst fire season in 2008 and a persistent drought. Spain and Portugal were struck by severe droughts. Australia had its warmest January since 1950, and drought conditions for a decade continued in some parts. Last month, Australia and New Zealand experienced their warmest August since record-keeping began.

The same anomalies occurred elsewhere in other ways: severe rainstorms, hurricanes, cyclones, floods.

With the scientific evidence continuing to harden, we might expect a focusing of the minds at Copenhagen. Instead, it would appear that hopes for an international agreement have been misplaced.

Some countries, it must be said, are paying more attention to climate change.

India, for example, was previously tone-deaf to pleas that it do something. But with the monsoon cycle being disrupted, Himalayan glaciers disappearing and dry areas becoming even drier, it is now at least willing to talk.

China is proposing to reduce the intensity of its energy use, and is busting ahead with renewable energies, so that it, rather than tardy North American countries, will be manufacturing and selling renewable technologies worldwide.

U.S. President Barack Obama is convinced of the importance of climate change. The House of Representatives has passed a bill, admittedly full of loopholes, that pledges a 17-per-cent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2020 from 2005 levels. The Senate, however, will water down that target, and almost certainly will not pass a bill before the Copenhagen summit. This week, to show the administration is serious, the Environmental Protection Agency released regulations it could use against large emitters if the Congress does not pass a satisfactory bill.

Despite this welcome attention, gaps among the countries appear too wide for a successful conclusion in Denmark. The most important negotiations are not really there anyway, but rather in Washington and Beijing. If the United States and China, the world’s biggest emitters, can make a deal, the rest of the world will follow.

Meanwhile, the signs of science are becoming ever harder to ignore.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/it-gets-harder-to-ignore-the-signs-of-climate-change/article1308816/

by David Adam

http://www.guardian.co.uk

• Study says 4C rise in temperature could happen by 2060

• Increase could threaten water supply of half world population

Unchecked global warming could bring a severe temperature rise of 4C within many people’s lifetimes, according to a new report for the British government that significantly raises the stakes over climate change.

The study, prepared for the Department of Energy and Climate Change by scientists at the Met Office, challenges the assumption that severe warming will be a threat only for future generations, and warns that a catastrophic 4C rise in temperature could happen by 2060 without strong action on emissions.

Officials from 190 countries gather today in Bangkok to continue negotiations on a new deal to tackle global warming, which they aim to secure at United Nations talks in December in Copenhagen.

“We’ve always talked about these very severe impacts only affecting future generations, but people alive today could live to see a 4C rise,” said Richard Betts, the head of climate impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre, who will announce the findings today at a conference at Oxford University. “People will say it’s an extreme scenario, and it is an extreme scenario, but it’s also a plausible scenario.”

According to scientists, a 4C rise over pre-industrial levels could threaten the water supply of half the world’s population, wipe out up to half of animal and plant species, and swamp low coasts.

A 4C average would mask more severe local impacts: the Arctic and western and southern Africa could experience warming up to 10C, the Met Office report warns.

The study updates the findings of the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which said the world would probably warm by 4C by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. The IPCC also listed a more severe scenario, with emissions and temperatures rising further because of more intensive fossil fuel burning, but this was not considered realistic. “That scenario was downplayed because we were more conservative a few years ago. But the way we are going, the most severe scenario is looking more plausible,” Betts said.

A report last week from the UN Environment Programme said emissions since 2000 have risen faster than even this IPCC worst-case scenario. “In the 1990s, these scenarios all assumed political will or other phenomena would have brought about the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by this point. In fact, CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating.”

The Met Office scientists used new versions of the computer models used to set the IPCC predictions, updated to include so-called carbon feedbacks or tipping points, which occur when warmer temperatures release more carbon, such as from soils.

When they ran the models for the most extreme IPCC scenario, they found that a 4C rise could come by 2060 or 2070, depending on the feedbacks. Betts said: “It’s important to stress it’s not a doomsday scenario, we do have time to stop it happening if we cut greenhouse gas emissions soon.” Soaring emissions must peak and start to fall sharply within the next decade to head off a 2C rise, he said. To avoid the 4C scenario, that peak must come by the 2030s.

A poll of 200 climate experts for the Guardian earlier this year found that most of them expected a temperature rise of 3C-4C by the end of the century.

The implications of a 4C rise on agriculture, water supplies and wildlife will be discussed at the Oxford conference, which organisers have billed as the first to properly consider such a dramatic scenario.

Mark New, a climate expert at Oxford who has organised the conference, said: “If we get a weak agreement at Copenhagen then there is not just a slight chance of a 4C rise, there is a really big chance. It’s only in the last five years that scientists have started to realise that 4C is becoming increasingly likely and something we need to look at seriously.” Limiting global warming to 2C could only be achieved with new technology to suck greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. “I think the policy makers know that. I think there is an implicit understanding that they are negotiating not about 2C but 3C or 5C.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/sep/28/met-office-study-global-warming

http://news.bbc.co.uk

The recession has had little impact on humanity’s over-consumption of resources, says a report.

The New Economics Foundation (Nef) calculates the day each year when the world goes into “ecological debt.”

This is the date by which humanity has used the quantity of natural resources that ought to last an entire year if used at a sustainable rate.

This year, “ecological debt day” falls on 25 September – just one day later than in 2008.

According to Nef, this means that the biggest recession for nearly a century has made very little difference to global consumption.

The report, entitled The Consumption Explosion: the Third UK Interpendence Day Report, asserts that the overall trend of our collective ecological footprint is deeply negative, with humanity still environmentally over-extending itself to a dangerous degree.

Debt-fuelled

Andrew Simms, Nef policy director and co-author of the report, said: “Debt-fuelled over-consumption not only brought the financial system to the edge of collapse, it is pushing many of our natural life support systems toward a precipice.

“Politicians tell us to get back to business as usual; but if we bankrupt critical ecosystems, no amount of government spending will bring them back.

“We need a radically different approach to rich world consumption.”

Calling for an end to the consumption explosion, he said that while billions in poorer countries subsist, “we (in the rich West) consume vastly more, and yet with little or nothing to show for it in terms of greater life satisfaction.”

The report calls for an end in particular to what it calls “boomerang trade”, where countries simultaneously import and export similar goods.

For example, the report says the UK imports 22,000 tonnes of potatoes from Egypt and exports 27,000 tonnes back the other way.

While 5,000 tonnes of toilet paper heads to Germany from the UK, more than 4,000 tonnes is imported back.

The report calls for us to pay the full environmental cost of transport, and calls for more investment in renewable energy.

It also rejects suggestions that reducing the size of the Earth’s human population would help the environment, claiming this focus is a critical distraction from tackling over-consumption in wealthy countries.

It points out that one person in the US will, by 4am on the morning of 2 January, already have been responsible for emitting as much carbon as someone living in Tanzania would generate in an entire year.

It says that a UK citizen would reach the same position by 7pm on 4 January.

Nef used figures from the Global Footprint Network to make its calculations.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8273791.stm

by Valerie Elliott

http://www.timesonline.co.uk

Three out of four rivers in England and Wales have failed tough ecological tests introduced by the European Union.
Only five of the 6,114 rivers and their tributaries have reached the highest ranking for the overall quality of their eco-systems. Of these, four are in Northumberland — the Ridlees Burn, Barrow Burn Catchment, River Till and Linhope Burn — and the fifth is the river Caletwr in North Wales.

A total of 117, some 2 per cent of all rivers, were found to be the dirtiest and most inhospitable to marine, plant and invertebrate life. Among them is the Stour estuary in Kent, part of a nature reserve run by the RSPB.

But even famous chalkstream rivers such as the Test, a favourite stretch for anglers, is in trouble. Paul Knight, of the Salmon and Trout Association , said: “People may not think of the Test as failing because it is cleaner. But the new system of scoring rivers means that when you look at the ecology — the number of fish, plants, invertebrates and the tiniest bugs — it is not doing well. The main problems are linked to over-abstraction and lack of river flow and diffuse pollution from phosphorus from laundry detergents and nitrogen from pesticide run off from farmland.”

Only a quarter of rivers are judged as in high or good status.

Nevertheless, the Environment Agency says that rivers are cleaner than they have been for 20 years even if more work is required. Species such as salmon, otter and eels have returned to the Thames, the Tyne and the Mersey.

The agency’s tests on chemical content of rivers show quality to have improved overall for 19 successive years.This has been thanks to investment by water companies, action against polluters, and greener farming practices.

Paul Leinster, chief executive at the agency, said: “We need to go even further to meet the new EU measures for water quality. That is why we have announced plans to clean up 9,000 miles of river over the next five years. Our strategy will tackle the pollution and obstructions that prevent wildlife returning to some areas and we will working with farmers, water companies and groups such as the RSPB.”

Ministers have already decided to ban the use of phosphorus in washing powders and liquids. The precise moves and a timetable are still to be drawn up but a ban will also apply to phosphorus in industrial cleaning products.

Plans to improve each river basin are being submitted by the agency to Hilary Benn, the Environment Secretary, who must agree future work by the end of the year.
Conservationists, however, are unclear how experts intend to achieve the higher standards.

Experts from wildlife and angling organisations have formed the “Our Rivers” campaign to press for urgency to protect the waterways.

Mark Avery, director of conservation at the RSPB, said: “These alarming figures show just how far we have got to tackle the problems. There are just five rivers in pristine condition left and they are all in some of the least densely populated corners of the country.

“Elsewhere we are having a devastating impact on our waterways, Pollution from agriculture, over-abstraction and poor town planning are all threatening an extremely important habitat for wildlife, Otters, water voles, kingfishers and more than 30 species of fish rely on our rivers.”

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6843745.ece

http://www.pcmag.com

Recycling your old, unwanted cell phone and carrying your laptop in an eco-friendly bag are just some of the steps you can take to protect the environment.

Most folks aren’t exactly what you’d call “environmentally conscious” when it comes to technology. We often leave our computers powered up for weeks on end (even though we know better). Our old cell phones get tucked away in dresser drawers alongside other discarded devices. Peek into our homes and offices, and you’ll often find chargers still plugged into sockets even though they’re not in use.

Not every techie is guilty of all of these crimes against the environment, of course. Some of us have actively taken the first step toward going green, such as investing in a green PC, or using solar-powered gadget chargers and LEDs. But these aren’t the only ways we can take better care of the environment. Whether it’s recycling an old cell phone or reducing computer power, here are 10 steps you can take towards going green.

1. Use an Eco-Friendly Laptop Bag: Targus Grove Bags

Targus recently released its line of eco-friendly notebook bags, made of recyclable material and nickel-free metals, and are PVC-free. The Grove Bags line consists of the Messenger ($49.99), Sling ($59.99), Topload ($59.99), and Convertible Messenger/Backpack ($79.99). The cases fit 15.4-inch laptops, and also include a security strap and custom pockets for your water bottle and MP3 player. Targus will offer free shipping to anywhere in the U.S. for the rest of April. In addition to the green bags, Targus partnered with Dell on its “Plant a Tree for Me” program to help off-set the impact carbon emissions have on the environment.

2. Reduce Computer Energy: The ecobutton

The next time you leave your computer to take a lunch break, attend a business meeting, or go away for the weekend, press the ecobutton to put your computer in energy-saving mode. This recycled, computer power-saving device can really make a difference for your home or work PC power usage. It can be placed on your desk and connects to your computer via USB. When you’re about to take a break, press the button, and your computer will be put into energy-saving “eco-mode,” which is said to ensure that both your computer and monitor draw the same nominal power as when they are shut down. In addition, each time your computer is put into “ecomode,” the ecobutton software records how many carbon units and how much power and money you have saved. The ecobutton is available outside the UK for £17.92 ($35 USD) plus shipping costs.

3. Unplug Your Phone Charger: Nokia’s Mobile Tip

Nokia recently shared some very helpful green mobile-phone tips with us. A simple way to save energy in your home is by unplugging your phone charger when your phone is fully charged. “Two-thirds of the energy consumed by a mobile phone during its usage is lost when the phone is fully charged and unplugged but the charger is left connected to the outlet,” according to the company. In an effort to remind consumers to unplug their charger, Nokia released four phone models that include alerts to remind people to unplug the charger once the battery is full: the 1200, 1208, 1650, and the 3110 Evolve, which is currently available in select European markets. By the end of 2008, virtually all of Nokia’s newly launched phones will have this alert built in. To learn more about Nokia’s environmental efforts, visit www.nokia.com/environment.

4. Share Your Favorite Green Products: Amazon’s Green 3

Amazon.com just launched Green 3, a site where Amazon shoppers can list the three green products they are most passionate about and would recommend to other consumers. Amazon’s vast selection of environmentally-friendly products includes everything from Electronics & Computers to Home Improvement. Consumers can also educate themselves about going green with the ongoing series of postings from leaders in the green community.

5. Web Surf the Green Way: Flock’s Eco-Edition Browser

Social Web browser Flock, which lets users organize their online interests in one place, has launched an Eco-Edition browser. Scheduled to go live on Earth Day, the new Web platform is built on the company’s existing model of social applications, offering a wide range of environmentally related content from media streams, news feeds, and recommended bookmarks that will be free to download and use. Flock partnered with major news and information outlets like Discovery Networks, The New York Times, and TreeHugger.

6. Recycle Old Phones: Verizon Wireless’ HopeLine Program

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, approximately 130 million cell phones will be retired this year, and fewer than 20 percent of those phones will be recycled. Verizon Wireless wants to make it easier for mobile phone users to recycle no-longer-used wireless phones through its HopeLine phone-recycling program. The phones are “refurbished, recycled or sold and the proceeds are donated to domestic violence advocacy groups or used to purchase wireless phones and service for survivors.” Go to www.verizonwireless.com/hopeline to find a store to donate.

7. Educate Your Kids: Planet Earth, SeaLife, and WildLife DVD Games

Saving the planet is important for people of all ages. What better way for parents and children to explore the beauty of the planet and the importance of keeping it clean than with Imagination Games’ three new DVD board games? In Planet Earth ($25), answer a range of trivia questions based on the award-winning television series. The DVD game features categories like Fresh Water/Ice Worlds and Seasonal Forests/Jungles, and is made out of 100-percent recycled materials. In SeaLife ($27), players collect sea creature cards by correctly answering educational ocean-based trivia questions. And in WildLife ($30), players explore the African Serengeti safari.

8. Shop Green Electronics: CircuitCity.com’s Online Resource

Electronics retailer Circuit City offers a new online resource that aids consumers in adopting a green lifestyle. By visiting www.circuitcity.com/green, consumers can research and shop for products that have earned ENERGY STAR designations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The site also offers tips for recycling electronics, saving energy, and spotlights Circuit City’s trade-in program, which allows consumers to turn in old electronics in exchange for Circuit City gift cards.

9. Reduce Your Carbon Footprint: iLinc’s Green Meter Web Conferencing

If you’re a frequent business traveler, you may want to mention to your boss that it’s better to Web conference than commute. James M. Powers, Jr., head of the Web conferencing software company iLinc, designed the Green Meter, a CO2 savings application embedded in the company’s conferencing products. Inspired by Al Gore’s initiative to save the earth, the Green Meter uses a “mathematical algorithm to detect the locations of the people that are attending a Web conference via IP address and measures the distance between the meeting participants and the meeting leader.” The program then arrives at the amount of travel and measures how much CO2 is saved by Web conferencing rather than commuting. iLinc’s Green Meter comes standard with iLinc version 9.0.

10. Travel Green: SmarterTravel.com

SmarterTravel.com, an online travel resource, is covering new eco-friendly travel destinations for its “Trip du Jour” series every day for the month of April. The series will feature domestic and international destinations, including New York City, Berkeley, and Iceland. For instance, the site highlights the Big “Green” Apple, with organic bakery finds and environmentally friendly clothing stores.

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2286030,00.asp